Why CJ Stroud Might Air It Out in Week 1
Heading into Week 1, CJ Stroud looks primed for a strong performance against the Colts. Despite the public favoring the Texans to win, with the Colts moneyline sitting at +125, I’m seeing things a bit differently. I actually like the Colts’ chances to play with a lead, and that’s part of why Stroud might throw more than expected.
First, Stroud’s history against Indy is compelling. He surpassed 1.5 passing touchdowns in both matchups last season, capitalizing on a defense that struggles with young, untested cornerbacks. While the Colts’ front seven is solid, their secondary allowed 1.9 passing touchdowns per game last season. With Nico Collins—who has historically torched the Colts—lined up for the Texans, there’s a good chance Stroud finds success through the air again.
Now, here’s why I’m betting against the public. If the Colts take the lead, Stroud will need to air it out to keep up. Indianapolis has improved their offense with Anthony Richardson at quarterback and a solid offensive line, meaning they could control the pace of the game. In that scenario, Stroud will likely be forced to throw, increasing his chances of surpassing the 1.5 TD mark.
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My Opinion: Given the Colts’ potential to play with a lead and their young secondary, I’m leaning toward CJ Stroud exceeding 1.5 passing touchdowns. With Collins likely to make big plays, and a pass-heavy game script in Houston’s future, this bet seems like a solid option. Just don’t be surprised if Indy pulls out a win!
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