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Why I’m Backing Justin Herbert to Go Under 220.5 Passing Yards This Week

Justin Herbert is known for his big arm and high-volume passing games, but this week, I’m leaning toward a play that might surprise you: Herbert to go under 220.5 passing yards. While this seems like a low line for a quarterback of his caliber, the situation points to a game script that could keep his yardage in check. Here’s why.

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Carolina’s Defense Isn’t the Real Problem
Carolina’s defense has been a concern, particularly after giving up a ton of points to New Orleans. But surprisingly, they only allowed 200 passing yards in that game, even while playing from behind. This shows that while they may be vulnerable in terms of points, they still managed to limit the passing game. That bodes well for a situation where the Chargers can get ahead early and not rely on Herbert slinging the ball all game long.

Game Script Favors the Run
The key reason I’m leaning under for Herbert this week is the likely game script. With Carolina’s defense being as shaky as it is, the Chargers could get out to an early lead. And when you have a coach like Jim Harbaugh, who loves pounding the rock, you know that once they’re ahead, they’ll shift to a run-heavy approach to control the game. This would naturally limit Herbert’s passing opportunities and keep his yardage total below the 220.5 mark.

Recent Trends and Coaching Philosophy
Even in games where the opposing defense has been weak, the Chargers have shown they’ll lean on the run when they can. This is especially true in games where they have a lead, as Harbaugh’s philosophy has always favored controlling the clock through the ground game. In addition, Carolina’s recent performances show that while they’ve struggled overall, they’ve done a decent job at limiting opposing quarterbacks from posting big passing yardage totals, as evidenced by holding the Saints to just 200 yards through the air last week.

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My Opinion: All signs point to a controlled, run-heavy game for the Chargers this week. If the team gets ahead early, Herbert simply won’t need to air it out like he normally does. This game script, paired with Carolina’s surprising ability to limit passing yards even when giving up points, makes under 220.5 passing yards for Justin Herbert a strong play.