Why I’m Backing Cooper Kupp to Exceed 7.5 Receptions vs. the Cardinals

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Looking at this week’s matchup against the Arizona Cardinals, Cooper Kupp over 7.5 receptions seems like an excellent play. Coming off a Week 1 performance where Kupp was absolutely dominant with 21 targets and 14 catches, he’s clearly Matthew Stafford’s go-to receiver, especially with Puka Nacua sidelined due to injury. Here’s why I’m confident in this bet.

Target Machine Without Nacua
Puka Nacua’s absence is a major factor in this line. When Nacua is out, Kupp becomes the undisputed focal point of the Rams’ passing game. Over his career, Kupp has exceeded 7.5 receptions in 18 of the 30 games he’s played without Nacua in the lineup. Without a reliable secondary receiver to siphon targets, Stafford locks in on Kupp, making him a target magnet.

Historical Success
Beyond just targets, Kupp has a strong track record of exceeding this line. He’s also hit the over on his 86.5 receiving yards line in 24 of 30 games without Nacua. Given that the Cardinals’ defense has struggled to contain receivers—allowing an 85.7% catch rate to Bills wideouts last week—the stage is set for Kupp to have another massive game. Arizona’s inability to defend against top-tier receivers puts Kupp in a prime spot to see heavy volume and high-efficiency targets.

Correlated Parlay Potential
Considering Kupp’s ability to rack up catches and yards in Nacua’s absence, a sharp play could be pairing the over on 7.5 receptions with the over 86.5 receiving yards for a correlated parlay. This play leverages Kupp’s tendency to exceed both lines in tandem when he’s the clear focal point. Add in an anytime touchdown for Kupp—who has a nose for the end zone—and you’ve got a fantastic value parlay sitting at +320.

VIP Picks & Insight

My Opinion: With Nacua sidelined, Kupp’s volume will only increase. The Cardinals are coming off a game where they allowed Bills receivers to catch nearly everything thrown their way, making Kupp’s over 7.5 receptions a smart play. Pair that with his receiving yards and an anytime TD, and you’ve got a high-upside bet that’s hard to ignore.