Why I Like Jacoby Brissett to Stay Under 175.5 Passing Yards for Thursday Night Football

Heading into Thursday Night Football, I’m backing Jacoby Brissett to stay under his passing yards prop of 175.5, currently set at -120 on Fanatics. Here’s why I’m leaning toward the under for this one.

Brissett’s Recent Performance

Brissett has been underwhelming in terms of passing yardage in both of his starts this season. In each of those games, he failed to surpass the 175.5-yard mark, indicating a conservative game plan and limited passing volume. Brissett has been used more as a game manager, focusing on short, safe throws rather than pushing the ball downfield. This approach has kept his yardage totals low and points to a similar outcome against a tough Jets defense.

Jets’ Defensive Strength

The New York Jets’ defense has been solid against the pass this season, allowing an average of just 168.3 passing yards per game. They’ve shown they can limit opposing quarterbacks through a combination of strong pass rush and tight coverage. With their defensive front putting pressure on quarterbacks and a secondary that can capitalize on mistakes, the Jets make it difficult for opposing offenses to move the ball through the air. Brissett, who isn’t known for his mobility, could struggle to find time in the pocket against this unit, further limiting his passing opportunities.

Game Script and Tempo

This matchup is expected to be a low-scoring and slow-paced game, as indicated by the low 38.5-point total set by oddsmakers. Both teams lean on their defenses, and this game is likely to feature a lot of running and clock management rather than high-octane passing attacks. The slower pace and fewer possessions mean fewer opportunities for Brissett to accumulate passing yards. With both teams likely to prioritize ball control and field position, it’s hard to see Brissett getting enough volume to exceed the 175.5-yard line.

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My Opinion: Given Brissett’s conservative usage in the offense, the Jets’ strong pass defense, and the expected low-scoring nature of the game, the under on 175.5 passing yards looks like a solid bet. Brissett has shown that he isn’t being asked to do much through the air, and against a stingy Jets secondary, staying under this total seems like the most likely outcome for Thursday Night Football.