Why I’m Backing Brandin Cooks to Go Under 3.5 Receptions This Week (-132)

Looking at this week’s matchup, I’m leaning toward Brandin Cooks to go under 3.5 receptions at -132. Here’s why:

Target Volume and Role in the Offense

Over his last 20 games, Brandin Cooks has averaged just 5.2 targets per game. While this is a decent number of opportunities, it doesn’t always translate to high reception totals, especially in Dallas’ offense, where CeeDee Lamb dominates the target share. Cooks has been more of a secondary option in the passing game, and his role tends to fluctuate depending on the game script and how Dak Prescott distributes the ball.

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Game Script and Target Distribution

This upcoming game is expected to stay competitive, but it’s unlikely that Prescott will need to throw 51 times like he did in Week 3. In a primetime division matchup, the Cowboys may look to lean on their top weapon, CeeDee Lamb, who tends to get more targets in crucial situations. Feeding Lamb and utilizing the run game will reduce the number of targets available for Cooks, further limiting his chances to hit four receptions.

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Defensive Focus

In division games, defenses often lock in on certain players, and given that CeeDee Lamb is likely to be the focal point, Cooks might not see as many high-percentage looks. Add to that, Prescott’s tendency to spread the ball around, and there may simply not be enough targets available for Cooks to hit this mark consistently.

My Opinion: Brandin Cooks is a talented receiver, but his role in the Cowboys’ offense and the likely game script suggest that the under 3.5 receptions is the smart play. With fewer targets to go around, particularly in a competitive game where CeeDee Lamb will likely be the go-to guy, I see Cooks falling short of four receptions this week.