Why I’m Eyeing Rico Dowdle for a Low Reception Count This Week

As we break down this week’s slate of player props, Rico Dowdle from the Dallas Cowboys has one line that stands out to me for a potential under play. Let’s dive into why I’m liking the under on his reception total.

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Game Script and Role in the Offense

Rico Dowdle has only exceeded 2.5 receptions twice this season, and both of those games occurred when the Cowboys found themselves trailing significantly. In those instances, Dallas was forced to rely more heavily on passing, giving Dowdle a few extra targets out of the backfield. However, this week’s game script is expected to be much more neutral. The Cowboys are not projected to be playing from behind for long stretches, if at all, which could limit Dowdle’s involvement in the passing game.

Steelers Defense vs. Running Backs

Another key factor is the Pittsburgh Steelers’ defense. They have been stingy when it comes to allowing targets to running backs, giving up the 7th fewest in the league at just 4.75 RB targets per game. With those kinds of numbers, it’s difficult to imagine Dowdle seeing enough opportunities to get over the 2.5 reception mark.

Expected Usage

Dowdle’s role in the Cowboys’ offense has largely been that of a rotational back, particularly in rushing situations. When Dallas isn’t trailing by large margins, they tend to keep the ball on the ground more, limiting the chances for their backup running back to rack up receptions. This should keep Dowdle’s reception numbers down in a game where the Cowboys are expected to stay competitive throughout.

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My Opinion: With the Cowboys unlikely to find themselves in a massive hole and the Steelers giving up few targets to running backs, I see Dowdle staying under the 2.5 (-145 BetESPN) receptions line this week. It’s a smart bet given the projected game script and Dowdle’s role in the offense.