Why I’m Backing Diontae Johnson to Exceed 16.5 Receiving Yards This Week

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Diontae Johnson’s receiving line is set at 16.5 yards on Fanduel, providing excellent value compared to other sportsbooks, where his line is at least 20.5 yards. Here’s why I believe this is a great play:

Increased Snap Count

Last week, Johnson was on the field for only 30% of the offensive snaps, but I expect that to rise closer to 50% as he becomes more comfortable in Baltimore’s offense. With additional playing time, he should see an uptick in targets and opportunities to contribute.

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Better Matchup and High Scoring Potential

Johnson faces a more favorable matchup against the Bengals this week. The game has a high 52.5-point over/under, indicating the potential for a shootout and more passing opportunities. Additionally, the Bengals’ defense allows three more targets per game to wide receivers than last week’s opponent, the Broncos, which increases the likelihood of Johnson getting looks downfield.

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Solid Value and Projected Targets

With this line sitting well below the 20.5 yards available at other books, we’re getting a strong value at 16.5. I anticipate Johnson seeing 2-4 targets in this matchup. If he hauls in a couple of receptions, he should exceed this modest line comfortably, especially with the increased snaps and favorable game script.

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My Opinion: Between the added snaps, a favorable matchup, and the value at 16.5 receiving yards, Johnson has a good chance to clear this line in a potentially high-scoring game.