I bet you thought this was a player prop for Giannis or Dame? Yea, my bad, it’s not. Truth be told, would you have come to this article if I had told you the play was for Jared McCain (PHI)? Exactly!! Please forgive me & accept this money as my apology.

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Why I’m Backing Jared McCain Under 3.5 Rebounds

Jared McCain’s rebounding line is set at 3.5, and I believe there are several factors pointing to the under as the stronger play. Let’s dive into why this line feels a bit high.

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Limited Opportunity for Rebounds

• Role Adjustment: Earlier in the season, McCain was playing limited minutes, which capped his opportunities to rebound. Even in recent games, with extended playing time (30+ minutes), he hasn’t exceeded this 3.5 line. His average of 6 potential rebounds per game in these extended minutes suggests limited rebounding upside.
• Joel Embiid’s Return: With Embiid back in the lineup, the rebounding distribution shifts heavily toward him. Embiid’s presence on the court naturally limits opportunities for other players, particularly guards, to contribute on the boards.

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Matchup Challenges

The matchup against Miami adds more resistance to McCain hitting this over:

• Miami allows the third-most assists to opposing point guards, signaling a focus on distributing rather than crashing the boards.
• Herro and Rozier (if guarding McCain) rank in the 91st and 61st percentiles for rebounding at their positions, respectively, making it tougher for McCain to snag contested boards.

Offensive Responsibilities

McCain is expected to take on more scoring duties in this game, which could further detract from his rebounding focus. Guards who play a scoring-heavy role often prioritize offensive creation over crashing the boards, particularly in fast-paced games.

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Market

Given McCain’s limited rebounding role and the factors mentioned above, this line seems inflated.

My Opinion: With Embiid’s presence, Miami’s rebounding strength at the guard position, and McCain’s likely scoring focus, I like the under 3.5 rebounds at plus odds. This play aligns well with both the matchup dynamics and McCain’s expected role.