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Should You Be Betting on Jahmyr Gibbs to Exceed 71.5 Rushing Yards Against the Bears?

Jahmyr Gibbs has been a focal point of the Detroit Lions’ offense, and his rushing line of 71.5 yards this week offers excellent value given the matchup. Here’s why I’m backing the over.

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Bears’ Defensive Struggles Against the Run

The Chicago Bears’ run defense has been a consistent liability this season. They’re allowing the 8th most rushing yards to opposing running backs, surrendering an average of 4.89 yards per carry, the 5th most in the league. Their inability to contain the run has led to big games for several RBs recently:

• Aaron Jones: 106 yards
• Josh Jacobs: 76 yards
• Rhamondre Stevenson: 74 yards
• James Conner: 107 yards
• Brian Robinson: 65 yards

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These performances highlight just how vulnerable the Bears are to opposing running backs, especially ones with the explosiveness and versatility of Gibbs.

Gibbs’ Elevated Role

Gibbs has seen his snap rate increase significantly in recent weeks, especially compared to teammate David Montgomery. While Montgomery has been effective, Gibbs has taken on a larger role in the Lions’ backfield, particularly in games where the team leans on their speed and athleticism to exploit weaker defenses. Although Montgomery was banged up recently, Gibbs’ recent workload suggests the Lions trust him to carry the rushing load moving forward.

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Matchup Plays to Gibbs’ Strengths

The Bears’ struggles to contain the run, combined with their poor tackling and inability to close gaps, create an ideal scenario for Gibbs. With his quickness and ability to break off chunk plays, Gibbs should find plenty of opportunities to rack up yardage against a defense that’s been gashed by similar running backs.

Conclusion

With the Bears ranking among the league’s worst in rush defense metrics and Gibbs’ increasing role in the Lions’ offense, this matchup sets up perfectly for him to surpass 71.5 rushing yards. Backing Gibbs at -137 on Underdog feels like a smart play, given both the stats and the matchup. Expect Gibbs to capitalize on this favorable spot and deliver a big performance.