Should you be Betting on Kyren Williams Over 76.5 Rushing Yards?
Kyren Williams is in a fantastic spot this week against the Buffalo Bills, and I’m backing him to clear 76.5 rushing yards. Here’s why.
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Matchup Advantage
Buffalo has struggled against the run this season, allowing the 7th most yards per carry to opposing RBs. They’ve been gashed in recent games, including a dominant performance by Christian McCaffrey last week before his injury. The Bills have shown they’re susceptible to big games from running backs, and Williams is in a position to capitalize.
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Comparable Performances
Here’s a quick look at some RB performances against Buffalo this season:
- Derrick Henry: 199 yards
- Breece Hall: 113 yards
- Jonathan Taylor: 114 yards
- James Conner: 50 yards
- De’Von Achane: 96 yards
The average of these performances comes out to 97 yards, well above Williams’ line.
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Game Script and Play Action
Sean McVay has consistently leaned on the run to set up the play-action pass, a strength of Matthew Stafford’s game. Stafford has attempted the second-most play-action passes in the league this year, and establishing the run with Williams will be key to that strategy.
My Opinion: Williams has the matchup and volume to clear 76.5 rushing yards comfortably. This line feels low given Buffalo’s recent struggles against the run.
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