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Will Cameron Johnson Exceed 14.5 Points Against the Pelicans?

Cameron Johnson has an attractive points line at 14.5 for his matchup against the New Orleans Pelicans, and the numbers suggest he’s in a great spot to hit the over. Here’s why this play looks promising.

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Weakness in the Pelicans’ Defense

New Orleans has struggled defensively, especially against power forwards. They’re allowing PFs to shoot a high 50.85% from the field, ranking sixth highest in the NBA. This efficiency has led to power forwards averaging 26.18 points per game against them, another stat where they’re in the league’s bottom tier. With Johnson stepping in as Brooklyn’s starting PF, he’s in line to benefit from this favorable matchup.

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High Defensive Rating

The Pelicans come into this game with the second-worst defensive rating in the league at 119.9. This lack of defensive cohesion has made them vulnerable across the board, and it should translate into scoring opportunities for Johnson. Given the Pelicans’ weak defense, he’s likely to see quality looks throughout the game, both from beyond the arc and closer to the basket.

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Steady Scoring Opportunities

Johnson’s role in the Brooklyn offense is consistent, and with his ability to shoot efficiently, he’s well-positioned to clear this 14.5-point line. Facing a Pelicans team that has given up high shooting percentages and points to his position, Johnson should have ample scoring chances to reach or exceed this line.

My Opinion: Given New Orleans’ defensive struggles and their vulnerability against power forwards, I’m liking Cameron Johnson’s chances to go over 14.5 points (-125 HardRock) in this matchup.